Mary Meeker Speaks

Morgan Stanley Internet analyst Mary Meeker  issued her 2010 report on Internet trends.  And we all listen.  She says that we, and by that I mean the world, has entered the fifth major technology cycle, marked by the adoption of the mobile Internet in a big(ger) way. She says that mobile will be bigger than desktop usage in five years, and that 3G coverage has reached at least 20% of all the world’s cellphone users.  AT&T is already seeing the result of the data ramp up, as their lines in NY and SF get clogged up.  Says GigaOm, reporting on her report:

The average cell-phone usage pattern is 70 percent voice, while the average iPhone is 45 percent voice. At NTT DoCoMo, data usage accounts for 90 percent of network traffic. The analyst says her team expects mobile data traffic to increase by almost 4,000 percent by 2014, for a cumulative annual growth rate of more than 100 percent. Such numbers will likely strike fear into the hearts of carriers, but joy into the hearts of equipment suppliers and mobile service companies. (by the way if you feel like going through all 87 of her slides, you can do so on GigaOm’s post).

Here are some of the other trends she sees:

Mobile E-Commerce — mobile will revolutionize e-commerce, forcing both innovations for both online and brick-and-mortar companies. She identifies location-based services, push notifications, transparent pricing, and instant mobile delivery as four potential areas this will occur.

Virtual Goods will be a growth area.

Applications:  Meeker refers to Apple and Facebook as”vibrant developer / application platform ecosystems, ” and suggests that companies will continue to leverage social networks for fans and for revenue.

Video: Meeker’s says that video will outpace VoIP and other resources people seek to access with their mobile devices, and that video is driving the growth in mobile Internet traffic. And speaking of VoIP, if Skype were a carrier, it would be by far the largest in the world. She sees a big future for Google voice, as well.

She also says that people are more willing to pay for content on mobile devices than they are on desktops (good news to Apple’s new content providers), and, marketers take note, personalization is more important on mobile than anywhere else.

As far as social networking is concerned, Facebook is now the largest repository of user-generated content and games, while the main professional repository has yet to be determined. Since people spend more time on social networking sites than on other places (232 billion total minutes in 2009), and the time spent on them is growing rapidly (50% more in 2009 than in 2008), in case you hadn’t figured it out, this is the place to be.

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